Welcome to this week's roundup of the cotton industry. U.S. producers are signaling caution for 2026 plantings amid persistent low prices and high costs, while USDA reports and fresh trade deals offer a mix of headwinds and tailwinds. Prices held steady in the low-60s amid volatility, and global fundamentals point to tighter stocks ahead. Let's dive in.
U.S. Cotton: Acreage Intentions Signal Caution for 2026
The big story this week was the National Cotton Council's (NCC) 45th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, released February 12 during its annual meeting in San Antonio. U.S. growers plan to plant 9.0 million acres of cotton in 2026—a 3.2% decline from 2025. Upland intentions fell 3.4% to 8.8 million acres, while extra-long staple (ELS) rose 14% to 161,000 acres.
Regional Breakdown:
- Southeast: 1.6 million acres, -4.9%. Georgia at 805,000 acres (lowest since 1993); declines in Florida (-11%), North Carolina (-6%), and Virginia (-18%). More corn and soybeans.
- Mid-South: 1.2 million acres, -20.6% (steepest drop). Arkansas -30%, Missouri -25%, Mississippi -16%, Tennessee -13%. Heavy shifts to corn and soybeans.
- Southwest: Slight +1.6% gain. Texas flat; Oklahoma +16% (less wheat/sorghum); Kansas +10%.
- West (upland): -7.2%. California and Arizona went down modestly; New Mexico -18%.
NCC economist Dr. Jody Campiche noted: “Planted acreage is just one factor... weather and agronomic conditions will play a significant role.” Using average abandonment (21.3%) and yields, the Belt could harvest 7.1 million acres for a 12.7 million-bale crop (12.3 million upland, 393,000 ELS).
Why the drop? Low futures prices (still below breakeven for many), high input costs, and better returns from competing crops. This marks the second straight year of acreage decline. Full NCC Survey • Farm Progress Coverage • Brownfield Ag News
Producers are watching the March 31 Prospective Plantings report and June Acreage numbers for confirmation. Early signals suggest stability or slight recovery if prices firm.
USDA Reports: Modest Revisions, But Export Pressure
USDA's February WASDE (released Feb. 12) was largely neutral-to-bearish for the current crop:
- Global 2025/26: Production +425,000 bales to 119.9 million; mill use -200,000 to 118.7 million; ending stocks +628,000 to 75.1 million.
- U.S. 2025/26: Exports cut 200,000 bales to 12.0 million due to sluggish sales; ending stocks rise to 4.4 million bales (from 4.2 million).
Export Sales (week ending Feb. 5): Net Upland sales hit 231,000 running bales—down 8% week-over-week but viewed as supportive. Top buyers: Vietnam, Türkiye, Pakistan. Shipments: 188,600 RB. Forward 2026/27 sales: 50,900 RB (Indonesia, unknowns leading).
Spot Market Snapshot (as of Feb. 13):
- ICE futures: March ~62.11¢/lb (down slightly week-over-week but +105 points mid-week on short covering).
- Cotlook A-Index: Up 25 points to ~73.55¢/lb.
- Adjusted World Price: 49.39¢/lb.
- The Seam: 15,617 bales sold Feb. 12 at avg. 57.90¢/lb.
Weekly Cotton Market Review (USDA AMS, Feb. 13) showed mixed spot demand: inactive in some regions, active in others. Export Sales Data • Trading Economics Prices • Barchart Market Summary
Other U.S. Highlights:
- NCC Annual Meeting (Feb. 9–12, San Antonio): Focused on policy, economics, and the Farmer’s Bridge Assistance Program to support producers. Cotton Newsline
- Cotton Incorporated's February Economic Letter (Feb. 11): Highlighted U.S. mill consumption trends and apparel import softness. Full Letter
- Panhandle Ag Update (Feb. 13): "February numbers are no Valentine"—December 2026 futures at 68¢, acreage likely flat to last year. Read Here
Quick Take: U.S. fundamentals remain challenged, but lower acreage and potential demand recovery could stabilize prices if weather cooperates.
International Snapshot: Trade Wins and Tighter Global Stocks
Global Outlook (NCC/Cotton Inc): World consumption +1% to 120 million bales in 2026; production down to 114.1 million; ending stocks to 69.8 million (lowest outside China since 2016). Price support is possible from the supply-demand imbalance.
Key Trade Developments:
- U.S.-India Framework (early Feb): India lowers tariffs on U.S. ag imports; U.S. cuts textile/apparel tariffs to 18% (from 50%). Boost for U.S. cotton exports.
- U.S.-Bangladesh Deal: No reciprocal tariffs on certain Bangladeshi textiles/apparel in exchange for $3.5B in U.S. ag purchases—including cotton. Major win for U.S. fiber.
- USDA Revisions: China imports +200k to 5.6M bales; India +200k to 3.2M; Pakistan down 200k to 5.7M.
Other Notes:
- Pakistan: Cotton arrivals up modestly but well below targets; industry grapples with competition.
- Brazil/Australia: 2026/27 production growth expected to slow.
Monthly Economic Letter • World Markets & Trade
Bottom Line: Positive trade momentum for U.S. cotton exports, but global inventories remain ample. Watch ICAC Plenary in March for deeper insights.
Looking Ahead: President's Day holiday (Feb. 16) means lighter trading next week. Focus on weather, basis levels, and any acreage tweaks. Prices need to break above 65¢ for any real optimism.
